Indian Indices End Lower, India's October Exports, and Top Cues in Focus Today

Tue, 19 Nov Pre-Open

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India share markets ended their day marginally lower yesterday.

At the closing bell yesterday, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 72 points (down 0.2%) and the NSE Nifty stood flat.

The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day down 0.4%, while the BSE Small Cap index ended the day down 0.3%.

Sectoral indices ended on a mixed note. Stocks in the auto sector and capital goods sector witnessed selling pressure, while telecom stocks and metal stocks were trading in the green.

Gold Witnesses Selling Pressure

In the news from the commodity space, gold witnessed selling yesterday as optimism grew about US-China trade ties following a report of constructive talks over the weekend.

Losses for the yellow metal, however, were capped by a weakening dollar.

As per the news, Washington and Beijing had a high-level phone call on Saturday and that the two sides discussed each other's core issues for the first phase of an initial trade agreement.

Gold is considered a safe store of value during times of economic or political uncertainty. Market participants will be tracking what effect these trade war talks have on gold prices in the coming days.

They are also awaiting minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, due on Wednesday, for clues about the future interest rate trajectory which can influence gold prices.

Note that optimism about a possible US-China trade deal, rising equity markets and the US Fed's signal of a pause in the current easing cycle have put pressure on gold prices. Gold prices are now down about Rs 1,000 per 10 gram, from their record highs of about Rs 40,000 in early September.

Speaking of gold, how lucrative gold has been as a long-term investment in India?

Barring just two years - 2013 and 2015, gold has delivered positive returns in 13 of the last 15 years.

Here's what Ankit Shah wrote about this in yesterday's edition of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• In fact, gold has delivered double-digit gains in 10 of the last 15 years.
  
  During the entire 15-year period, gold has shot up 555% (compounded annual return of 12.1%).
  
  During the same period, the Sensex surged 511% (compounded annual return of 12.0%). If you include dividends, the Sensex returns would be higher than gold by a couple of percentage points.
  
  One must note that the Sensex returns are not representative of the broader market returns. Moreover, gold was a no-brainer. You didn't have to study financial statements, business models and forecast future earnings growth to get a double-digit return on your investment.
  
  If you grab a pie of the big money-making opportunities beyond stocks, I would strongly insist you attend Vijay's Weekly Cash Summit here (It's free).

NCAER Sees India's GDP Growth Falling

With sustained slowdown in almost all the sectors, economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has said that India's economic growth is likely to decline to 4.9% in the second quarter of this fiscal (Q2FY20).

Earlier, the country's economy grew at 5% in the first quarter of 2019-20 - the slowest pace in over six years.

Besides, the think-tank has pegged Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 4.9% as for the full fiscal 2019-20 against 6.8% in 2018-19.

NCAER further said the monetary policy measures are unlikely to revive growth at this juncture and suggested providing fiscal stimulus, which too can be challenging unless it can be financed through better revenue generation.

It said 'whether the growth deceleration may be bottoming out or not, we will know in next two weeks based on the Q2 growth figures of the government. However, the current poor growth is mainly due to a demand problem. It can be addressed through fiscal measures.'

Stressing that the focus should be on fiscal measures, it said there is a need to pump up expenditure without pushing up the fiscal deficit. It said that there are ways of doing it and added that there is a huge fiscal space which has not been used.

Now, what's in store for the Indian economy going forward remains to be seen.

Volatile markets and some recent economic numbers have confused investors.

In the video, Tanushree Banerjee decodes a few economic myths and reveals three big trends of Rebirth of India.

Tune in...

India's Exports Decline in October

Exports of goods declined for the third month in a row in October 2019 to US$26.4 billion posting a 1.1% fall year-on-year (YoY) with sectors such as petroleum products, leather, readymade garments, carpets and a wide range of farm products taking a hit.

The fall in imports in October 2019 was at a steeper 16.3% to US$37.4 billion which narrowed the country's trade deficit to US$ 11 billion compared to US$18 billion in October 2018.

There were, however, a number of labor-intensive sectors, such as gems & Jewellery, engineering goods, drugs & pharmaceuticals and marine products, where exports increased during the month, although marginally, indicating a possible recovery in demand in the months ahead.

In April-October 2019-20, exports fell 2.4% to US$186 billion while imports declined 8.4% to US$280.7 billion.

Trade deficit narrowed to US$94.7 billion in April-October 2019 compared to US$116.2 billion in April-October 2018.

In October 2019, petroleum imports declined 31.7% to US$9.6 billion while gold import increased 4.7% to US$1.83 billion.

And to know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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