Helping You Build Wealth With Honest Research
Since 1996. Read On...

MEMBER'S LOGIN

MEMBER'S LOGINX

     
Invalid Username / Password
   
     
   
     
 
Invalid Captcha
   
 
 
 
(Please do not use this option on a public machine)
 
     
 
 
 
  Sign Up | Forgot Password?  

Revealed
India's Third Giant Leap

This Could be One of the Biggest Opportunities for Investors




Important: We hate spam as much as you do. Check out our Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use.
By submitting your email address, you also sign up for Profit Hunter, a daily newsletter from Equitymaster
covering exciting investing ideas and opportunities in India.

AD

Are Exports on the Cusp of Recovery?
Mon, 27 Jun Pre-Open

Exports contracted at its slowest pace in eighteen months in May. The contraction was marginal at 0.8% during the month as compared to a year ago. Further, the positive is that the growth in the non-petroleum exports turned positive. However, has the fall in exports bottomed out and is a sustainable recovery foreseeable?

To see a sustainable growth in exports, there must be a pick-up in the global economy. However, a pick-up in the global economy seems to be a far cry. Recently, the World Bank lowered its growth projections for global trade to 3.1% from the earlier projected 3.8%. Further, recent jobs data emanating from US is hardly encouraging. It suggests the weak economic situation prevailing there.

To add to this, low crude price of oil have depleted the foreign exchange reserves of the oil producing nations. This has led to lower export orders from their side. However, lately there has been a recovery in the oil prices.

But have Indian exports fallen just because of tepid global growth? As Vivek Kaul points out that there are structural factors too which has dragged the exports down. Here is his take on the same:

  • For instance, while world real GDP growth improved from 3.2% in 2009-2011 to 3.4% in 2012-2014, India's real growth of exports came down from 11.1% to 4.1%. Falling competitiveness is one of the structural factors restricting export growth. For key export items such as gems & jewellery and textiles, revealed comparative advantage has come down over the years. So Indian exports have come down also because their competitiveness vis a vis goods from other nations has gone down over the years. It's not just about slowing global economic growth.

The slower contraction of exports is a good sign for the Indian economy. However, the global economy continues to remain in a weak spot. Hence, a sustainable pick-up in the exports would only be visible once the structural economic issues are addressed and currency volatility is taken care of.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

View all commentaries | Archives

Read the latest Market Commentary


Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Are Exports on the Cusp of Recovery?". Click here!

  
ABOUT EQUITYMASTER

Since 1996, Equitymaster has been the source for honest and credible opinions on investing in India. With solid research and in-depth analysis Equitymaster is dedicated towards making its readers- smarter, more confident and richer every day. Here's why hundreds of thousands of readers spread across more than 70 countries Trust Equitymaster.

PREMIUM PRODUCTS
QUICK LINKS
POPULAR TOPICS
TRENDING TOPICS
FREE NEWSLETTERS
EQUITYMASTER SUPPORTS
  • HelpYourNGO
  • You Tube
  • Linkedin
  • Twitter
  • Telegram
  • Google Play

Copyright © Equitymaster Research Private Limited (formerly Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited).

Whitelist | Refer | Terms | Privacy | Contact | About | Sitemap

Phone +91-9136015013

Equitymaster Research Private Limited (formerly Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited) (Research Analyst)
SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014, Registration No. INH000000537.

103, Regent Chambers, Above Status Restaurant, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021. India.
Telephone: +91-22-61434055. Email: info@equitymaster.com. Website: www.equitymaster.com.
CIN:U74999MH2007PTC175407

Name of the Compliance & Grievance Officer: Ms Sonal Ramachandran
Telephone: +91-22-61434003 | Email: compliance@equitymaster.com

LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

All rights reserved. Any act of copying, reproducing or distributing this newsletter whether wholly or in part, for any purpose without the permission of Equitymaster is strictly prohibited and shall be deemed to be copyright infringement.

Equitymaster Research Private Limited (formerly Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited) (Research Analyst) bearing Registration No. INH000000537 (hereinafter referred as 'Equitymaster') is an independent equity research Company. Equitymaster is not an Investment Adviser. Information herein should be regarded as a resource only and should be used at one's own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Equitymaster will not be liable for any losses incurred or investment(s) made or decisions taken/or not taken based on the information provided herein. Information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual subscribers. Before acting on any recommendation, subscribers should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek an independent professional advice. This is not directed for access or use by anyone in a country, especially, USA, Canada or the European Union countries, where such use or access is unlawful or which may subject Equitymaster or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. All content and information is provided on an 'As Is' basis by Equitymaster. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Equitymaster does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaims all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied. Equitymaster may hold shares in the company/ies discussed herein. As a condition to accessing Equitymaster content and website, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, available here. The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results.