Indian Indices Extend Downtrend

Thu, 9 Jun 11:30 am

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After opening the day weak, the Indian indices registered further losses and went on to trade deep in the red. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks from the IT and FMCG sectors witnessing maximum selling pressure.

The BSE Sensex is trading down 187 points (down 0.7%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down 49 points (down 0.6%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading flat, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up 0.3%. The rupee is trading at 66.66 to the US$.

According to a Reuters poll of economists, higher food and fuel prices pushed Indian inflation up in May. The poll further stated that good monsoon rains would moderate inflation in the coming months and give the central bank room to further ease its monetary policy.

According to the survey predictions, annual consumer price inflation went up to 5.52% in May from April's 5.39%. However, if this prove correct, it would mean upside risks to the RBI's 5% inflation target for January 2017.

All the hopes are now pinned on good monsoon rains this year. After two consecutive years of subpar rainfall, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a robust monsoon season this year. Given that we are now in June; all eyes are on the next four months. One of our premium editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp explains how monsoons, along with other factors, will influence RBI policies in the coming months (subscription required).

Raghuram Rajan, while maintaining status quo in its monetary policy review, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was looking for room to ease. He listed a good monsoon and astute management of stocks by the government as prerequisites to offset inflationary pressures ahead.

Moving on to the news from IT space. Stock of Infosys witnessed selling pressure during morning trades today after the company's chief operating officer (COO) - UB Pravin Rao - warned that the company would face volatility over the next few quarters. This would be due to weaker spending from sectors such as energy and insurance.

Rao stated that margins will likely stay pressured in the near term given the commoditization that has taken place in the industry, and said they would pick up once investments into machine learning and automation become productive.

He, however, stated the company was still on track of achieving its FY17 revenue growth guidance of 11.5-13.5%. If this is achieved, Infosys will be back to industry leading growth.

In its results for the fourth quarter ended March 2016 (4QFY16), Infosys reported a 4.1% QoQ growth in sales and a 3.8% QoQ growth in the net profit. To know our view on Infosys, you can read our latest analysis on the company (subscription required).

The stock of Infosys is trading down by 3.7%.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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