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Fiscal Deficit of Centre and States, Rising Crude Oil Prices, Bharti Airtel Q4 Results, and Top Cues in Focus Today
Wed, 20 May Pre-Open

Indian share markets ended marginally higher yesterday.

Benchmark indices rose sharply in early trade yesterday, tracking firm cues from global markets and initial success in coronavirus vaccine trials.

In a significant development, an American biotechnology company Moderna said its initial vaccine tests in people have shown promising results and can stimulate an immune response against the coronavirus.

However, Indian share markets trimmed gains in the last hour of trading, led by weakness in European indices.

European markets fell yesterday as investors turned cautious over bleak economic data and feared of second wave of infections amid re-opening of many countries from lockdown.

At the closing bell yesterday, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 167 points (up 0.6%) and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 56 points (up 0.6%).

The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day up by 0.5%, while the BSE Small Cap index ended down by 0.2%.

On the sectoral front, gains were largely seen in the telecom sector, power sector and automobile sector, while PSU bank stocks witnessed selling pressure.

The SGX Nifty was trading at 8,845, up by 19 points at the time of Indian stock market closing hours yesterday.

SGX NIFTY is a derivative of NIFTY index traded officially in Singapore stock exchange.

How it performs today and affects trades in Indian markets remains to be seen.

We will keep you updated about its movement in upcoming market commentaries. Stay tuned.

Note that the coronavirus impact has shaken markets worldwide. For the BSE Sensex, FY20 was the second worst year post FY08, the year of the global financial crisis.

Good Time to Start Investing Now?


Naturally, there is an atmosphere of fear all round.

Is it time to sell stocks now? Will the correction get worse?

History has shown that after years like the one we had just now, the next 3 years are good for the markets. In fact, these corrections are the rare times when you find businesses with solid fundamentals at reasonable valuations.

If you can find good businesses that can survive the current crisis, you will do well in the long run.

In the video below, Richa Agarwal, editor of our premium smallcap service Hidden Treasure, talks about robust smallcap businesses that are not just resilient but likely to emerge stronger from the coronavirus crisis.

Tune in now...

Crude Oil Prices Rise on Output Cuts

From the oil & gas sector, shares of oil and gas companies will be in focus today as crude oil prices extended gains into the fourth straight session yesterday, amid signs that producers are cutting output as demand picks up.

Shares of ONGC, Oil India, Petronet LNG, and Indraprastha Gas witnessed buying on the above news.

On Monday, oil prices jumped to their highest in over two months. Brent Crude futures for July delivery rose US$ 2.31, or 7%, to US$ 34.81 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose US$ 2.39, or 8%, to US$ 31.82.

As per a Reuters report, oil markets were boosted by signs that output cuts agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and others including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are being implemented on the ground.

Bullish oil investors have also become more optimistic as Saudi Arabia said it would cut an extra 1 million barrels a day in June, with the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also contributing more than their targeted reductions.

The above development comes as a welcome breather as crude oil futures crashed last month and briefly went to negative prices, implying that investors would need to pay buyers to take delivery of crude oil amid dwindling storage space.

What effect crude oil prices have on Indian stocks markets and the Indian economy in the coming days remains to be seen. Meanwhile we will keep you updated on the latest developments from this space.

Speaking of crude oil, in one of his recent videos, Vijay Bhambwani has explained why he's expecting to recommend a short sell trade on crude oil to his subscribers.

You can check the same here: You Will Get a Chance to Short Crude Oil Once Again

Fiscal Deficit of Centre and States to Top 12% of GDP

As per an article in a leading financial daily, the combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and states will top 12% of the gross domestic product (GDP) because of the recent economy-boosting measures, and higher borrowings by States to meet COVID-19 emergencies.

According to a report, the combined fiscal gap will increase by 480 basis point (bps).

In case of the Centre, the fiscal gap will increase by 200 bps as earlier this month it hiked market borrowings by a whopping Rs 4.2 trillion or 54% over the budget estimate to Rs 12 trillion.

Another 80-bps increase will be on account of the fiscal boost.

In case of states, the fiscal gap will rise by 200 bps after the Centre hiked the borrowing limit of states to 5% of GDP on Sunday.

While the government claims it is pump-priming the pandemic stricken economy by a whopping Rs 20.9 trillion (10% of the GDP) package, in actual fiscal outgoes, this converts only into a paltry 0.8% of GDP, even though it has hiked the borrowing by a whopping Rs 4.2 trillion.

Further, the higher borrowing by states, which are actually spending much more than the Centre on COVID-19 control and management, will involve relaxing the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM) guidelines.

This 2% more borrowing will increase their debt issuance by Rs 4.3 trillion, the reports noted.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the coming year. Stay tuned for more news from this space.

March Quarter Results: Bharti Airtel Sees 15.1% YoY Growth in Revenues

Market participants will be tracking Bajaj Finance share price,  HYPERLINK "https://www.equitymaster.com/share-price/NWSE/NESCO-505355/NESCO-Share-Price?utm_source=TM&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=MCOM&utm_content=market-commentary" \t "_blank" Nesco share price and Sanofi India share price as these companies announced their March quarter results (Q4FY20).

Nesco reported its net profit at Rs 529 million for Q4FY20 as against Rs 513 million reported in the same quarter previous year.

Meanwhile, Sanofi India reported net profit at Rs 854 million, down 8.1% year-on-year (YoY).

From the telecom space, Bharti Airtel share price hit a record high of Rs 591.95 on the BSE yesterday after the company reported 15.1% year-on-year (YoY) growth in its consolidated revenue at Rs 237.2 billion for Q4FY20.

Shares of the company surged as brokerages stayed upbeat on the scrip even after the telco reported a surprise Rs 52.4 billion loss for March quarter.

The telecom operator said it took a hit from an exceptional item of Rs 70 billion in the quarter, which comprised mainly of a charge on account of reassessment of regulatory cost based on a recent judgment on one-time spectrum charge (OTSC)-related matter.

Bharti Airtel's consolidated EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) witnessed an increase of 51.7% YoY to Rs 103.3 billion in Q4FY20.

The company's domestic revenues reported a strong 14.4% YoY jump at Rs 174.4 billion during the quarter.

Mobile revenues witnessed a YoY growth of 21.8% primarily led by increase in 4G customer base coupled with improved tariffs.

Subscriber additions for the quarter were flat sequentially at 284 million, but 4G subscriptions grew 10% to 136 million.

The company delivered a strong 25.2% YoY growth in average revenue per user (ARPU) at Rs 154, as against Rs 123 in the same period last year. Sequentially, the ARPU rose 14.3% from Rs 135.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

Read the latest Market Commentary


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