Indian Indices Hit Record High as Exit Polls Predict NDA Win; Sensex Ends 1,421 Points Higher

Mon, 20 May Closing

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Indian share markets witnessed huge buying interest today. The benchmark indices opened gap-up after Exit Polls for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 predicted return of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to power.

The momentum was seen throughout the day and both the indices ended their day's session at a record closing high and posted their biggest single session gain since 2009.

Gains were largely seen in the banking sector, automobile sector, capital goods sector and realty sector.

At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 1,421 points (up 3.8%) and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 421 points (up 3.7%).

Both, the BSE Mid Cap index and the BSE Small Cap index ended the day up by 3.6%.

Asian stock markets finished on a mixed note as of the most recent closing prices. The Hang Seng stood up by 0.2% and the Nikkei was trading down by 0.6%.

European markets were trading on a negative note. The FTSE 100 was down by 0.6%. The DAX was trading down by 1%, while the CAC 40 was down by 1.1%.

The rupee was trading at 69.59 to the US$ at the time of writing.

Market participants were tracking GSK Pharma share price, Astron Paper share price, and Bharat Forge share price as these companies reported their March quarter (Q4FY19) results today.

You can also read our recently released Q4FY19 Results: ITC, Inox Leisure, Nestle, Orbit Exports.

In the news from the commodity space, crude oil witnessed buying interest today. Crude oil prices jumped as much as 1% today as after Saudi Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated there was consensus among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil producers to continue limiting supplies.

As per the news, OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia meeting in Jeddah signaled a desire to extend an output cut accord through year-end.

Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak, however, talked about relaxing restrictions, which expire next month if they are not renewed.

Apart from the above, prices also jumped after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran by warning officials in Tehran that if they want a fight, that will be the end of the Islamic Republic.

Note that last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said world's oil supply fell last month amid rising global tensions as US sanctions on Iran tightened and OPEC+ members produced less crude in line with their pact.

In its latest monthly report on the global oil market, the IEA said that geopolitics and industry disruptions were clouding the outlook it believes and that the market balance is set to flip from surplus into deficit.

How this pans out remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you updated on all the developments from this space.

Also, speaking of crude oil, within the oil industry, there are signs of a further rise in output from the United States, where crude production has already surged by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018, to a record 12.3 million bpd.

That has made the United States the world's biggest producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The number of rigs drilling for gas in the United States fell by 3 to 183 in the week to May 3, while oil-directed drilling rigs rose by 2 to 807, the reports noted.

Also, crude oil prices have quietly creeped up this year.

Oil prices have jumped as much as 3.2% to their highest level since late 2018.

As you know, rising crude oil prices have a big impact on the Indian economy as it imports over 70% of its energy needs.

Rise in crude oil increases input costs for dependent firms. It also means rising inflation. Rising inflation means rising interest rates.

It also puts pressure on the government to cut excise duty, thereby impacting its revenues. We have already seen that happening.

Research Analyst, Richa Agarwal believes that this has the potential to bring down sentiments in the domestic markets. She further believes that, if oil prices continue their upward march in a tight global environment, a broader correction in the sentiment fueled domestic market cannot be ruled out.

In the news from the automobile sector, Bajaj Auto share price was in focus today. Shares of the company witnessed selling pressure today even as the company reported better-than-expected results for the quarter ended March.

The company, on Friday, reported 20.9% year-on-year (YoY) rise in standalone profit at Rs 13.1 billion over Rs 10.8 billion in the same period last year.

Standalone revenue from operations jumped 8.9% YoY to Rs 73.9 billion during the quarter.

The company sold 11,93,590 standalone units in March quarter against 10,45,378 units in the same period last year.

During the quarter, the company reported its highest-ever operating profit of Rs 53.8 billion with EBITDA margin of 17.6%.

On a consolidated basis, the auto firm posted 20% YoY rise in profit at Rs 14.1 billion.

The board of the company has recommended a dividend of Rs 60 per share.

Speaking of auto sector, note that automobile companies have shifted to low gear and demand has flattened across the board. NBFC crisis, followed by lower off-tick of volumes, and increasing competition has taken a major toll on automobile original equipment manufacturer (OEMs).

According to reports, major dealers across the country have been burdened with high inventory prompting OEMs to re-align their production.

While private vehicles (PVs) have been facing stiff task with dealers across geographies grappling with higher inventory, commercial vehicles (CVs) are seeing some revival led by fresh disbursal by NBFCs.

It would be interesting to see how this trend will pan out ahead.

Also, for auto stocks, one thing to keep in mind is that not all auto companies will make money over time. And also, you shouldn't stay away from auto stocks altogether.

Even Tanushree Banerjee, Co-head of research at Equitymaster believes that there are businesses in this sector that you cannot ignore. She is particularly talking about the blue-chip auto stocks.

She believes, this could be the opportunity long term investors were waiting for.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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