LIC IPO, Credit Growth Trend in India, and Top Cues in Focus Today

Fri, 28 Feb Pre-Open

   Previous Close   

   09:30 am   

   12:30 pm   

   Closing   

   Podcast   

Editor's note: Dear reader, we are now on Telegram! Get our latest views on stock markets and more, instantly. Join our Telegram channel here!

---

India share markets recovered some losses during closing hours yesterday and ended their day marginally lower.

At the closing bell yesterday, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 143 points (down 0.4%) and the NSE Nifty stood down by 45 points (down 0.4%).

The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day down 0.7%, while the BSE Small Cap index stood down by 0.8%.

Stocks in the realty sector and oil & gas sector witnessed huge selling pressure, while healthcare stocks were trading in the green.

Credit Growth Expected to Pick Up in Next Fiscal

As per the ratings agency Crisil, increased demand for retail loans, strong growth in lending by private banks and pick-up in economic activity may improve credit growth in the next financial year (FY21).

The RBI's move to exempt banks from cash reserve ratio (CRR) requirement for incremental credit to certain sectors for up to five years, will also support lending.

According to report, the prolonged slowdown in bank lending may be bottoming out this fiscal, with gross credit offtake set to rise 8-9% on-year in FY21, a good 200-300 basis points (bps) over the likely growth of around 6% this fiscal.

So far this year, loan growth has slowed to around 7-7.5%. During this fiscal, some growth momentum is expected in the fourth quarter, after subdued three quarters due to traditional fiscal year ending growth.

It mentioned that retail credit should continue to grow at a healthy rate of around 16%, next year, supported by sustained demand for unsecured loans, muted business growth for non-banks as well as steady levels of pool purchases.

Structural shifts such as favourable demographics, rising propensity to leverage for personal consumption, increase in availability of financing, and reasonable risk-adjusted returns for lenders, will continue to support retail lending.

One theme we believe will play out over the next decade is the credit growth in India.

Retail and corporate credit are expected to grow by multi-fold over the next few years.

It remains to be seen how these projections pan out. We will keep you updated on all the developments from this space.

Speaking of credit growth, let's take a look at India's domestic credit data...

Increasing Domestic Credit to Private Sector Key for Economic Growth

Domestic credit to the private sector in India is amongst the lowest in the world.

Here's what Tanushree Banerjee, co-head of research at Equitymaster, wrote about it in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• A huge chunk of the domestic borrowing is by the government. That leaves very little scope to lend to the private sector.
  
  Low credit to the private sector means low capital available for expansion. A major hurdle for one of the major growth engines of the economy.
  
  With the government set to borrow overseas, a lot of capital is expected to free up at home.
  
  This also coincides with the recent efforts by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to resolve bad loans. This will free up further capital for lending.

As per her, a proactive step in this regard will be a huge boost to the economy going forward.

This is one of the megatrends that will help what Tanushree calls the Rebirth of India.

She has identified the 7 best stocks that will profit from the Rebirth of India. You can read about these top 7 stocks here.

LIC IPO and Developments in the Insurance Sector

In news from the insurance sector, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) has set up a committee to study the feasibility of allowing life insurers to sell indemnity-based health products.

Until now, these companies were allowed to sell only benefits-based health products.

As per an article in The Economic Times, if the nine-member panel recommends the move and the Centre gives the green light, this will pave the way for Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) to further consolidate its dominance of the country's insurance landscape using its expansive distribution network to potentially seize market share from health insurers ahead of its IPO next year.

However, stakeholders and market observers point out that while such a move can bring much needed improvement in coverage of health-based products, the proposition may face stiff resistance from health insurers.

How this pans out remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you updated on the latest developments from this space.

In other news, Fitch ratings on Wednesday said that the proposed initial share sale of LIC will improve the accountability and transparency of the country's largest insurer and benefit the insurance industry.

Fitch said it expects that the initial public offering (IPO), once executed, may also encourage some of the other private sector insurance companies to list some of their shares in the stock market over the medium term, although the current insurance regulation does not require all insurers to be listed publicly.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said that LIC will be listed as part of government's disinvestment initiative.

Currently, the government owns the entire 100% stake in LIC.

Fitch expects the state to reduce ownership only marginally in the insurer in the near term, but could gradually reduce the stake over the long run to meet the minimum public holding requirement for listed companies.

Speaking of the life insurance sector, this is one sector which is a clear outperformer in this volatile market.

With the huge future potential of the sector, the outperformance is not surprising. India's life insurance penetration i.e. insurance premiums as a percentage of GDP, is very low compared to the global average.

The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11-13% over the next five years. India's large youth population and growing awareness about insurance is bound to accelerate growth.

Gold Continues Uptrend

Moving on to news from the commodity space, gold continued its rally yesterday as market participants rushed to safe haven assets as new coronavirus cases grew rapidly outside of China.

As per the news, the number of new infections inside China - the source of the outbreak - was for the first time overtaken by fresh cases elsewhere on Wednesday, with Italy and Iran emerging as epicentres of the rapidly spreading illness.

Italy has reported more than 400 cases and Iran has reported only 139 cases, but epidemiologists say the true number of cases must be many times higher.

Note that 2019 proved pretty good for gold, as gold surged amid fears of a possible slowdown in global growth and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical crisis in West Asia and Britain's divorce from the European Union.

The same uptrend is also seen in 2020 so far.

Gold prices are seen rising as the rapid spread of coronavirus cases outside of China and its potential negative impact on the global economy are prompting investors to take refuge in safe haven assets like gold.

Increase in the number of new coronavirus cases outside China over the past few days have bolstered the safe haven appeal of gold. South Korea, Italy and Iran have logged sharp increases in infections and deaths, while several countries in the Middle East reported their first cases of coronavirus.

The international spot gold prices have rallied to seven-year highs while India's domestic gold prices rallied to all-time highs.

Speaking of gold, how lucrative has gold been as a long-term investment in India?

Barring just two years - 2013 and 2015, gold has delivered positive returns in 13 of the last 15 years.

Here's what Ankit Shah wrote about this in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• In fact, gold has delivered double-digit gains in 10 of the last 15 years.
  
  During the entire 15-year period, gold has shot up 555% (compounded annual return of 12.1%).
  
  During the same period, the Sensex surged 511% (compounded annual return of 12.0%). If you include dividends, the Sensex returns would be higher than gold by a couple of percentage points.
  
  One must note that the Sensex returns are not representative of the broader market returns. Moreover, gold was a no-brainer. You didn't have to study financial statements, business models and forecast future earnings growth to get a double-digit return on your investment.

Meanwhile, in his latest video, Vijay Bhambwani shares his view on gold and silver prices. He talks about how the bullion prices will move in the short term.

You can check the same here: Will Gold and Silver Prices Fall because of the Coronavirus?

And to know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

Read the latest Market Commentary

Top Gainers TodayTop Gainers over 1-WeekTop Gainers over 1-MonthTop Gainers over 1-YearTop Gainers over 3-YrsTop Gainers over 5-YrsTop Losers TodayTop Losers over 1-WeekTop Losers over 1-MonthTop Losers over 1-YearTop Losers over 3-YrsTop Losers over 5-YrsOnly BuyersOnly SellersMost Active StocksMost Popular Stocks52 Week High Stocks52 Week Low Stocks

INDICESBSE (Rs 0 to 1)BSE (Rs 1 to 2)BSE (Rs 2 to 4)BSE (Rs 4 to 10)BSE (Rs 10 to 20)BSE (Above Rs 20)BSE - AllBSE-30BSE-100BSE-200BSE-500BSE AutoBSE BankexBSE Capital GoodsBSE Consumer DurablesBSE FMCGBSE HealthcareBSE ITBSE MetalBSE Oil & GasBSE PSUBSE TeckBSE RealtyBSE PowerBSE A GroupBSE B GroupBSE Mid-CapBSE Small-CapBSE Basic MaterialsBSE Consumer DiscretionaryBSE IndustrialsBSE UtilitiesBSE Sensex 50BSE Sensex Next 50BSE Bharat 22BSE 150 MidCapBSE 250 SmallCapBSE 250 LargeMidCapBSE 400 MidSmallCapBSE AllCapBSE LargeCapBSE SmallCap SelectBSE 100 LargeCap TMCBSE InfraBSE ManufacturingBSE CPSEBSE Private BankBSE Diversified FinancialsBSE MomentumBSE Low VolatilityBSE QualityBSE Enhanced ValueBSE Divident StabilityS&P BSE IPOBSE SMEIPOBSE 100 ESGBSE CarbonexBSE GreenexNSE (Rs 0 to 10)NSE (Rs 10 to 20)NSE (Above Rs 20)NSE - AllNSE-50NSE ITNSE Nifty Midcap 50NSE JR. NiftyNSE Bank NiftyNIFTY Next 50NIFTY 100NIFTY 200NIFTY 500NIFTY MidCap 100NIFTY SmallCap 250NIFTY SmallCap 50NIFTY SmallCap 100NIFTY LargeMidCap 250NIFTY MidSmallCap 400NIFTY AutoNIFTY Consumer DurablesNIFTY FinanceNIFTY FMCGNIFTY MediaNIFTY MetalNIFTY PharmaNIFTY Private BankNIFTY PSU BankNIFTY RealtyNIFTY Oil & GasNIFTY SME EmergeNIFTY CommoditiesNIFTY CPSENIFTY EnergyNIFTY India ConsumptionNIFTY InfraNIFTY MNCNIFTY PSENIFTY Serv SectorNIFTY100 Liquid 15NIFTY Midcap Liquid 15NIFTY Midcap 150 Quality 50NIFTY50 Equal WeightNIFTY100 Equal WeightNIFTY100 Low Volatility 30NIFTY100 Alpha 30NIFTY Alpha 50NIFTY Dividend Opportunities 50NIFTY High Beta 50NIFTY Low Volatility 50NIFTY200 Quality 30NIFTY 500 Value 50NIFTY 100 Quality 30SECTORSAgricultureAirlinesAluminiumAsset Management CompaniesAutomobilesAuto AncillariesBanks (Private)Banks (PSU)BankingCementChemicalsDefenceDiagnosticsDronesEngineeringElectric VehicleElectric Vehicle BatteryEnergy SourcesESGEthanolFertilizersFintechFMCGFoodGreen HydrogenHotelsInfrastructureInsuranceInvestment and FinanceInvITIT (Large)IT (Others)LogisticsMediaMetalMiningIndia's Big Tech StocksIndian PharmaMNC PharmaPSUPaintPaperPlasticPowerRating AgenciesReal EstateREITsRenewable EnergyRetailingSemiconductorShippingSteelSugarSupply ChainTelecomTextilesTravel Support Services

10 results 25 results 50 results 100 results All results

Indian Share Market Update: Top Gainers and Losers