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India's Third Giant Leap

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How Vulnerable is India to External Factors?
Wed, 27 Jan Pre-Open

What are the factors that influence an economy? Broadly, we can divide all of them into two categories- internal and external factors. And here is something that caught our attention.

As per a poll by Moody's, the greatest challenge facing the Indian economy is exposure to external shocks. The risk has more than trebled than last year. The study, which polled some of India's largest investors, reported that 35% of the participants saw external factors as the chief challenge for the economy. This was as against just 10% in the previous May 2015 poll.

Concerns about the pace of US interest rate hike and the slowdown in China have sparked most of this pessimism. And investors are worried that these factors could have a potential spillover effect on India.

The above factors have affected most of the world economies. Commodity markets crashed, stock markets have been topsy-turvy with many foreign investors fleeing away. The crash in Chinese markets has also been weighing on the global markets. It has sparked off a sell-off in equities and dragged commodity prices even lower.

While the Indian economy is said to be relatively lesser impacted by the above factors as compared to other economies, in a strongly interlinked globalised world no economy escapes the brunt. Instead of deflecting the criticism by pointing out that all emerging markets are in the same boat, India should try for the successful passage and implementation of the government's reform agenda.

The need to build safety mechanisms against external shocks is higher than ever. And until this is done, investors would do well to be cautious and not get carried by talks of quick turnarounds and better times ahead.

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