Sensex Trades Marginally Higher; Energy Stocks Witness Buying Interest

Tue, 10 Jan 11:30 am

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After opening the day on a positive note, the Indian share markets have continued to trade marginally higher. Most sectoral indices are trading on a positive note with stocks in the energy sector and consumer durables sector witnessing maximum buying interest.

The BSE Sensex is trading up 122 points (up 0.5%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 33 points (up 0.4%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.4%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by around 0.6%. The rupee is trading at 68.02 to the US$.

The post demonetisation economic data has only begun to kick in. While there's clarity regarding few variables, it will be some time before a clear picture emerges. However, the government seems to have decided to present a rosy picture. Based on the advanced estimates, the government believes that GDP growth for FY17 will be 7.1%. This estimate is still be below the 7.6% growth recorded in FY16.

We believe, FY17 GDP growth could be significantly lower than 7.1%. Growth in India has slowed down in the recent months. This was seen on the back of demonetisation. The government has not factored in the negative impact of demonetisation in the above 7.1% GDP estimate for FY17. This we say because the government did not have the data to do so.

From The 5 Minute WrapUp... 'No one is willing to stick their neck out and make a FY18 GDP growth forecast. It would be foolhardy to do so without adequate data. The first such prediction will come from the government itself in the Union Budget next month. We are not sure if the government would have sufficient data on the impact of demonetisation to have an accurate GDP growth forecast in the budget. Watch this space.'

India's GDP Growth Could Decelerate Sharply

Here is what Dr Jim Walker, founder and chief economist of Asianomics Group, had to say about the government's estimates in his latest Asianomics Macro update:

• The government's new growth forecasts are not only optimistic but downright bizarre. The market is concerned that even with the new (still optimistic) growth forecast of 7.1%, the government's budget deficit target of 3.5% of GDP will be overshot.

A while back, in an interview with Vivek Kaul and Rahul Goel, CEO of Equitymaster, Dr Jim Walker had shared his views on a variety of topics including the Indian and Chinese economies. It's worth revisiting.

On the news from global financial markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart yesterday said that a recovery of the US economy from the crisis era is largely done. As per him, the Fed officials should now turn their focus on addressing long-term issues like how to boost productivity.

We doubt the strength and durability of the US economic recovery since it has been driven mainly by massive doses of money printing and artificial suppression of interest rates.

The Fed's outlook is now for three more 0.25% hikes in 2017. A quick succession of rate hikes would create a massive storm in the global financial markets. As per Asad, the Fed's promise of more interest rate increases will lead to the end of easy money and will create big trends next year that traders can profit from.

Speaking of trading, Apurva Seth, editor at Profit Hunter, is now ready to reveal what he believes will be a very lucrative trading strategy for 2017...a strategy that could help you make money without taking undue risk.

This is Apurva's Post-Demonetisation Trading Strategy... The strategy is easy to execute and has the potential to help you identify many exciting trading opportunities in 2017.

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