Disclaimer: All case studies discussed in this webinar are for educational purpose only, and not stock recommendations.

India's Third Giant Leap

India' First Two Multi-Decade Leaps Created Crores for Investors...
Now It's Time to Ride India’s Third Giant Leap

TRUPTI:

Hi, I’m Trupti.

And today, I am here to reveal the bold prediction made by our senior analyst, Rahul Shah.

He calls it India’s Third Giant Leap.

Rahul has spent many years doing deep research on this topic.

Today, he is going to share all this research with us.

He will show us how India’s first two leaps generated wealth of immense proportions for many Indians…

Turning many of them into ultra-rich in just a few decades.

Companies like:

• Mahindra and Mahindra
• Tata Chemicals
• Rallis India
• UPL
• Escorts
• Hindustan Unilever
• Wipro
• Infosys
• HCLTech

…and many other such giants are the products of India’s first two leaps.

We all know the kind of wealth these companies have generated for their investors over the years.

Just look at the money these stocks have created in the last two decades only…

(Source: Ace Equity)

As you can see, some of them have turned their early investors into crorepatis.

And Rahul believes India’s third giant leap could offer one more chance to investors to potentially make such epic returns.

(Source:RBI, Equitymaster Research estimates)

Yes. It’s a bold claim.

But Rahul is very confident about it.

The window of opportunity to capture best gains is very limited.

So, it is absolutely essential to get in on this opportunity right now.

Or you may miss it forever.

Rahul will show us today, how a similar leap led to mega wealth creation in several other countries.

The United States took this leap in the mid-1940s and 50s.

Japan took this leap in the 60s.

And China and South Korea in the 80s.

After taking this giant leap, the economies of these countries started growing significantly.

Their GDPs multiplied.

Incomes multiplied.

Above all the per capita income started growing at a rapid rate.

And this triggered a huge opportunity for many companies.

Some of them have become the most recognized brands in the world today…

• Boeing
• Ford
• Toyota
• Honda
• Sony
• Samsung
• LG
• Hyundai
• Xiaomi
• Oppo
• Huawei
• And many more

And just like these companies, there are some Indian companies that are set to become global brands over the coming decades.

And Rahul believes that those who get on the ground floor of this opportunity today have the chance to potentially make huge gains over the long term.

We will see all the details in today’s briefing.

So, stay tuned till the end to get the details.

Now, let me invite the man with Midas touch, Rahul Shah, on the stage to reveal his bold prediction.

Welcome, Rahul.

RAHUL:

Thanks for inviting me.

I’m glad to be here.

TRUPTI:

I’ve been personally tracking your work for quite some time.

All the research you have published till now… your predictions… your stock recommendations…

I must say the kind of work that you put into your research is simply incomparable.

I was going through the thick folder of research that you have compiled just for today’s briefing… and I was simply blown away by the quality of your research.

You have gone all the way back to India’s independence and even beyond.

So, why not just start there.

So that, our viewers also get to know why you are extremely bullish on India’s third giant leap… and the kind of potential long term wealth making opportunities that it is throwing up today…

RAHUL:

Sure.

You see, when I was compiling my research on India, I studied economies of many countries around the world.

United States, Japan, China, South Korea, Germany and many other nations.

My goal was to find a common pattern of growth among these nations.

To see if India’s growth trajectory has anything in common.

And I was stunned to see that most of these nations have gone on similar growth paths.

(Source:World Bank:  GDP per capita (current US$))

As you can see…there are broadly three phases…the initial growth…the acceleration and then the spike…the third phase.

Surprisingly, India is also following the same pattern.

We are in what I call the third and final stage of taking a giant leap.

(Source:RBI, Equitymaster Research estimates)

And this is the stage that generates the most growth in a relatively short time.

Because when the per capita GDP starts growing at such rapid rate… we see a huge spike in the economy and shareholder returns…

In the last two decades, India’s per capita income has risen by around 7-times.

(Source:RBI - Macro Economic Aggregates (at Current Prices))

But look at its effect on investor wealth over this time.

While our per capita GDP grew by around 7-times, the BSE Sensex grew by almost 14-times.

And many individual stocks rallied even higher.

(Source:RBI, BSE India, Ace Equity)

HCL Tech grew by 46 times.

HDFC Bank by 47 times.

M&M by 63 times.

L&T by 62 times.

And Asian Paints by a whopping 99 times.

*Prices from January 01, 2004 to September 31, 2024

Just imagine multiplying your wealth by almost 100-times in just two decades.

It’s like converting a small sum of Rs 1 lakh into Rs 1 crore.

And that was the return potential from just a single stock. Imagine investing your money in 10-20-30 such high-potential stocks.

Trupti:

Wow. That would be worth several crores.

RAHUL:

That’s true.

Now, here I’m not even showing returns of stocks like Titan or Bajaj Finance.

They have offered returns in excess of over 500 times during this period.

But that’s not important. What is more important is what’s about to happen in the future.

Because during India’s third giant leap our per capita GDP could grow at a rapid rate.

And that means potentially bigger money-making opportunities for investors.

I’m telling you, over the coming years and decades we are going to witness wealth creation happening in India at a scale we have probably never seen before.

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TRUPTI:

Wow, this sounds interesting.

Please share more details.

RAHUL:

Sure. You see, today we are talking about India’s growth and how it is set to become a superpower in the near future…

But the fact is India was already a superpower for many years.

In fact, for centuries India was one of the richest nations in the world.

But then these Britishers came in and they stole all our wealth, prestige and prosperity from us.

And by the time they left us in 1947, they turned us from the richest nation in the world to one of the poorest.

At the time of India’s independence, more than 70% of our population was below poverty line.

Industries were virtually non-existent.

In fact, India was not even able to produce enough food for the nation. We were forced to import even basic agricultural produce like wheat from foreign countries.

TRUPTI:

Indeed. These Britishers left us in a really horrible state.

RAHUL:

Yes. And on top of that you had hostile neighbours like China and Pakistan… who were always looking for opportunities to grab India’s land.

And I believe that it was 1965 war with Pakistan that set the stage of India’s first giant leap.

TRUPTI:

A war with Pakistan setting the stage for India’s growth?

I am a bit surprised.

Can you please elaborate?

RAHUL:

Sure.

During 1965 war with Pakistan, there was acute shortage of food in India.

And like I said earlier, in those days India used to import agricultural produce from other nations like the United States.

So, during the Indo-Pak war of 1965, the US threatened to cut supplies of wheat to us if we didn’t stop the war.

But India was not ready to bow down against American pressures.

Our prime minister at the time, Lal Bahadur Shastri, requested all the Indians to go without one meal at least once a week.

So that, no foreign nation could arm-twist India into following their command.

We stayed hungry. And we fought against Pakistan to protect our sovereignty.

But this 1965 war was the seed for India to take a giant leap of prosperity.

Shastri Ji made it clear that if India wants to achieve progress, then the very first step we need to take is become self-sufficient in agriculture.

He started the White Revolution and Green Revolution in India…

Remember, Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan?

This was India’s first giant leap.

Within just ten years of starting this agricultural revolution… India became one of the top agri-producers in the world.

TRUPTI:

Wow. That’s a great achievement.

And it helped us achieve tremendous economic progress as well.

RAHUL:

100%.

Many states in India experienced a big jump in their economic output.

Especially states of Punjab and Haryana. They after all had perhaps some of the most conducive environment for agriculture.

They became the model states for others to follow.

India’s per capita GDP started rising rapidly.

(Source:RBI - Macro Economic Aggregates (at Current Prices))

India’s agri revolution was the foundation for the growth of some of the biggest companies.

Like Mahindra and Mahindra and Escorts that started selling tractors.

UPL, Rallis India and Tata Chemicals sold crop protection products.

And companies like Hindustan Vanaspati Manufacturing that later merged to became Hindustan Unilever.

Early investors in these companies have reaped solid returns.

Like Tata Chemicals offered 598% return in just last two decades.

Rallis India offered 3,912% return.

Escorts gave 4,641% return.

And M&M a staggering 6,202% return.

Then there are also companies whose contribution to India cannot be measured with stock market.

Like Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Limited.

TRUPTI:

That’s Amul, right.

RAHUL:

Yes. India’s Amul is the world's largest milk cooperative company in the world.

And it has played a significant role in making India the world's largest producer of milk and milk products.

We can trace all this success back to India’s first giant leap.

A leap that made India the world's largest producer of milk, pulses and jute.

And the second largest producer of rice, wheat, sugarcane, groundnut, vegetables, fruit and cotton in the world.

This first leap helped millions of individuals, farmers and small businesses achieve tremendous economic progress.

But becoming self-reliant in agriculture was just the first step for India.

Our service sector and industries were still struggling to grow because of restrictive policies of the government of that time.

We all know how the licence-permit raj delayed India’s growth by several decades.

But a major boost came with the economic liberalization of 1991.

I will not get much into detail here because everybody knows how liberalization set the foundation for India’s economic progress.

It put India on a global map.

Many small Indian companies of that time became global giants in just a few decades.

And their early investors became crorepatis.

I’m talking about companies like Infosys, HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Titan, Bajaj Finance.

Look at the kind of returns these stocks have generated.

Infosys jumped by 21-times in the last two decades.

HCLTech multiplied invested money by 46-times.

HDFC Bank grew investor wealth by 47-times.

Asian Paints by 99-times.

Titan multiplied invested money by a mind-blowing 575 times.

And Bajaj Finance was even higher at 913 times.

All this is the result of India’s second giant leap.

And now India has started taking its third giant leap.

TRUPTI:

So, you mean to say investors will have one more chance to potentially make such huge returns?

RAHUL:

That’s right.

And the reason why I’m confident about is because this third leap is what turns a developing nation into a developed one.

And companies that play a significant role in this transformation go on to generate life-changing wealth for investors in the long term.

It has happened every single time… for all the economies that I’ve studied.

Let me quickly share my research on this bit… then we will get to discussing stocks…

TRUPTI:

Sure.

Go ahead.

RAHUL:

So, this third leap that I’m talking about is when a country transforms to become an industrial nation.

With heavy focus on manufacturing and infrastructure.

Because this is what provides a major boost to the economic growth.

Like see what happened in the United States.

Today, US is the most powerful economy in the world.

How did it get there?

How did US became the world’s richest nation?

You see, after the second world war, most European economies were completely devastated.

Even other big economies like Russia and Japan were destroyed.

There was only one country in the world at that time that remained almost untouched by the negative effects of the world war.

And it was the United States.

So, what did they do? Well, it became the factory of the world.

During the 1940s to late 60s, the share of manufacturing in the American GDP was consistently high.

Above 25%.

It even touched a high of 28% during this period.

No, wonder America became the factory of the world. The US started supplying all kind of manufacturing products from cars to computers all over the world.

And as a result, they started getting a heavy flow of dollars from everywhere.

Very soon, it became the richest nation in the world.

And it became the model for every progressive nation in the world.

The very first country to emulate this model of growth was Japan.

Japan was completely shattered after the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Their factories and industries were ruthlessly destroyed during the second world war.

But Japan knew one thing clearly.

If it had to become a thriving economy again, then it had to take a giant leap in manufacturing.

And that’s exactly what it did.

Japan’s companies like Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, Sony, Canon and many others started capturing global market share like there is no tomorrow.

Very soon, these companies became some of the world’s leading global brands.

This giant leap of manufacturing is what turned Japan from a devastated economy into one of the richest nations in the world.

Just see how Japan’s per capita GDP has grown after it took this giant leap of manufacturing.

(Source: World Bank: GDP per capita (current US$))

From less than $500 in 1960… it grew to almost $45,000 by 1995.

That’s growth of almost 90-times in less than four decades. It brought tremendous prosperity to Japan’s citizens… who became some of the richest people in the world.

After Japan, even China and South Korea followed this same model of growth.

This giant leap into manufacturing is what propelled China’s economy to the next level.

We can clearly see it in this chart…

(Source: World Bank: GDP per capita (current US$))

This huge difference we are seeing is mainly because China focused on manufacturing… while India didn’t.

Today, some of the leading global brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Lenovo, BYD, Huawei, ZTE, Haier, MG and many more are owned by Chinese firms.

Even South Korea has been focusing heavily on manufacturing. This is one of the reasons why it rose so quickly in terms of economic prosperity.

(Source: World Bank: Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP))

As we can see from this chart, the share of manufacturing in South Korea’s GDP has risen from nearly 10% in 1960s to over 24% today.

And we can clearly see its positive impact on South Korea’s economic progress.

(Source: World Bank: GDP per capita (current US$))

As we can see its per capita GDP has grown from less than $100 in 1961 to almost $33,000 in 2023.

That’s a growth of over 352-times in that duration.

No wonder, South Korea is one of the richest nations in the world today.

And some of its top manufacturing companies like Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and Kia are global brands and marker leaders of their segments.

All this could happen only because South Korea took a giant leap in manufacturing.

I’m telling you, every nation that takes this leap sees its financial fortunes change within a couple of decades.

For years India has lagged behind in manufacturing.

But over the last few years I’m seeing a big turnaround.

Especially, the Covid pandemic has changed the geopolitical equations forever.

China that was considered to be the world’s factory is now losing everyone’s trust.

Samsung moved its manufacturing out of China.

Hasbro has moved its Chinese production to India and Vietnam.

Adidas has also shifted production out of China.

And it is not just these companies. Many giants like Dell, Intel, Samsung, Hyundai, Kia Motors, LG, Google, Amazon, Apple, and many more are either shifting their facilities out of China.

The list of businesses moving out of China is too long.

TRUPTI:

It looks like a mass exit from China.

RAHUL:

That’s right.

But all these global giants simply can’t exit China on a whim.

They need a viable alternative to shift their production.

And today, there is only one country in the world that can offer a safer, better and cost-effective alternative to China.

And that’s India.

This is the reason why we are seeing so much manufacturing moving to our country these days.

Like Samsung opened world's largest phone factory in India.

Apple bets big on India's manufacturing sector. A CNBC article says it may triple its production in India over next 3 years.

Many Taiwanese semiconductor companies are considering relocating their manufacturing plants to India.

All these are signs of India’s third giant leap.

Over the coming years and decades, we may see a complete transformation of the Indian economy.

This engine of manufacturing has been lying idle for so long in India.

But now it is beginning to run with turbo-chargers.

And I’m not the only one saying this.

Look at all these headlines in the leading news publications.

“India tops Japan to become world’s 3rd largest auto market”

Fortune India

“India's on its way to become the world's pharmaceutical hub”

The Economic Times

“India to become global drone hub by 2030”

The Statesman

“India – a $1 trillion manufacturing export market by 2030”

LiveMint

“India has ambitious plans to be a global semiconductor hub”

Tech Wire Asia

“India indisputably a world leader in deployment of renewable energy”

The Times of India

“India set to emerge as a hub of chemical and petrochemical industry globally”

Indian Chemical News

“India: The Next Smartphone Export Powerhouse”

New European Economy

So, we can see in everything from auto, pharma, drones, semiconductors, green energy, chemicals, smartphones…

India is starting to take the lead at a global level.

And I can confidently say that after the US, Japan and China… now it’s India’s turn to become the factory of the world.

India: The New Factory of the World

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TRUPTI:

Well, that’s a very bold claim that you are making.

RAHUL:

I am just saying what my research it telling me.

The demand for manufactured goods is only going to increase over the coming years and decades.

And when you look at all the countries that can satisfy this massive demand, then you will find that India is the ONLY country in the world that has the potential to be the factory of the world.

I mean look at the alternatives.

The United States cannot become the factory of the world.

It is simply too expensive to produce goods there.

Land, labour, logistics… everything is expensive there.

That’s also the reason why major US corporations are outsourcing their manufacturing to other countries like China and India.

So, the US is out of the equation.

Japan doesn’t have the scale at all.

It doesn’t have enough land. Its population is declining and even getting old.

TRUPTI:

What about China?

RAHUL:

After seeing China’s blunders in this whole Covid period and the scope of their geo-political ambitions… I think people have begun to lose trust in them.

We saw how many companies are moving out their production facilities from China.

And shifting their manufacturing to other places.

Yes, China has the land. It has a large and talented labour force. It has got excellent infrastructure.

But what’s the use?

There is no democracy in that country.

The Chinese government is cracking down on private businesses left, right and centre.

Instead of focusing on business growth… China is dreaming of becoming a superpower with its military.

And now, we officially know, that the Chinese population has started to decline. In the coming years China simply won’t have the demographic strength that is required to be a manufacturing powerhouse.

So, I don’t see China remaining as the world’s factory anymore.

It is too risky to do business there.

That’s the reason we are seeing production shifting out from China to countries like India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and others.

But among all the alternative, India is the only country that has the potential to snatch away the tag of ‘the world’s factory’ from China.

Vietnam, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia… they simply don’t have the scale to match us.

In terms of land and resources, India is the seventh-largest country in the world. So, we have got ample of that.

We have got a large, talented and growing labour force.

A labour force that is also cost-effective.

And the biggest benefit of India is its stable democratic government.

A government that is not only strong but also very progressive about business growth.

The world needs more manufactured goods than ever.

And today, the only country that can meet this large demand in a cost-effective way is India.

Just see how India’s merchandise exports are rising today.

((Source: Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India)

As we can see, till the financial year 2020-21, our manufacturing exports were kind of flattish.

But starting from 2022 we saw a big spike… with our merchandise exports crossing $400 billion mark.

By 2030, we could see this number reaching over $1 trillion.

(Source: Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, IBEF)

This is going to be a giant leap for India’s manufacturing.

Right now, the share of manufacturing in our GDP is very small at around 13%.

If we compare this to our neighbours, then we can clearly see the kind of potential that India holds.

(Source:World Bank:  Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP))

Just look at this chart…

Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, China they all have a very high share of manufacturing in their GDP.

Over the years we have seen how this has benefited these countries.

And now it is India’s turn to reap solid gains by taking a giant leap in manufacturing.

The process has already started.

This decade will be very important.

My research suggests that potentially a big chunk of wealth creation could happen in this decade itself.

If you are an investor, then this is the time to act.

Because the window of time to act on this opportunity is short. If you miss it today, then you could miss out on a big chunk of your potential gains altogether.

So, this is time to get in on a few best stocks to ride India’s third giant leap.

TRUPTI:

What you are saying makes perfect sense.

But the million-dollar question is, how do you find these stocks?

I know you are very secretive about your stock selection process and your strategies.

But if you could reveal some of your secrets today, then it would be great for our viewers.

RAHUL:

Well, it’s a long process.

Sometimes it takes me many years of research just to find one good stock.

It’s more than full-time job.

But I will share my core principles today. So that, our viewers can get a clear idea of how to go about picking winning stocks on their own.

You see, despite India taking this giant leap of prosperity over the coming years and decades…

Not every stock will rally.

In fact, many stocks could and probably will go nowhere… and some even crash…

And this is the reality of the stock market.

For every Amazon that rises to the top, there are hundreds if not thousands of ecommerce companies that have failed.

For every Infosys, there are many IT companies that went nowhere.

For every Titan, there are many jewellery companies that never became big.

Most investors don’t realize this fact.

You simply can’t bet your money on some well-known stocks and expect to make good money.

Because some of the well-known stocks are already overpriced.

These stocks have run up way beyond their true value.

So, if you invest your money in these expensive stocks, then it will definitely impact your future returns.

The right way to select stocks for this opportunity is through what I call Value for Money Matrix.

It looks something like this…

(Source:Equitymaster research. For representation purposes only)

Every single stock that I analyse, falls into one of the four quadrants of this matrix.

Now these stocks are not my recommendations.

I’ve given their names just for demonstration purpose.

What we are basically looking for is high quality stocks that are available at attractive valuations.

Now from my experience I can tell this…

Out of more than 5,000 stocks listed on the Indian stock exchanges… very few fall into this value for money bucket.

But these are the ONLY stocks worth buying if you want potentially market-beating returns in the long term.

If you go for anything else, then expect to see average returns only… or in a worst-case scenario, a significant loss of your capital.

And what I’ve found again and again through my two decades of experience is that the stocks that fall into my Value for Money bucket are mostly midcap stocks.

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In the midcap space you can find many good stocks trading at discounted prices.

The reason is simple.

Because midcap stocks are not as widely tracked… so most investors have not yet figured out the true potential of many midcap stocks…

Thus, you can find them at bargain prices…

Which is useful to lift up your potential returns from these stocks.

So, in midcap stocks I can find everything that I’m looking for… strong company… fast growth… and discounted price…

That’s the reason why midcap stocks are my favourites.

Here’s one more reason why I like midcaps.

Midcap stocks have historically outperformed largecaps by a huge margin.

(Source:BSE India)

As you can see, over the last two decades, the BSE Sensex has offered 1,325% return.

But the BSE Midcap index has offered a whopping 1,917% return.

And that’s just the index.

Many individual midcap stocks have offered much higher returns.

And since midcap stocks are already established companies with relatively stable financials… So, you also get some peace of mind… because your downside risk is much lower compared with small cap stocks.

Midcap stocks are a perfect fit for capturing potentially huge gains from India’s third giant leap.

I mean ask yourself.

India’s is taking a giant leap in prosperity.

The process has already begun.

The next 8 to 10 years are very crucial. We could probably see some of the biggest wealth creation happen in India during this time.

So, in such a scenario…

Would you bet your money on big-name stocks that are already trading at expensive valuations?

Or would you rather go with midcaps that are already strong companies and are ready for almost vertical takeoff?

My bet would be on midcaps.

TRUPTI:

Yeah. Even I would choose midcaps.

But why not go all the way down and pick smallcap stocks?

RAHUL:

That’s a good question.

Smallcap stocks also have tremendous potential.

But to play India’s third giant leap, I think they are not suited well.

Because this giant leap that I’m talking about is already in progress.

And smallcap companies are too small to play this opportunity.

They are yet to establish their brand in the market… they don’t have that competitive edge… many smallcap companies are still struggling to gain market share…

So you see, there are too many challenges.

We don’t want all that.

What we need is a company that is already passed this stage… has a great competitive edge… and has got solid financials to potentially profit from India’s third giant leap.

And that’s where midcap stocks are a perfect fit.

TRUPTI:

Got it.

So, what plan of action would you suggest for any investor to tap into this big opportunity?

RAHUL:

India’s third giant leap is a multi-year event.

It’s has just started.

And over the coming months and years, we could see many more opportunities coming up to potentially profit from it.

But I believe some of the best opportunities are to be had now.

The broader market has little idea about the companies that are tapping into this opportunity secretly…

Once the market gets the hint of this opportunity, the stock prices of such companies could potentially rally like anything.

So, if you are an investor, then this is the time to act.

India’s third giant leap is a mega wealth creation opportunity.

India’s first two leaps created a huge wealth for thousands of Indians…

Turning many ordinary investors into crorepatis.

Just see how much wealth creation has happened in the last two decades only…

Tata Chemicals gave 598% return.

That’s enough to convert a small sum of Rs 1 lakh into around Rs 7 lakh.

Escorts rallied by 4,641%

It would have turned Rs 1 lakh into Rs 47 lakhs.

Rallis India went on to offer a staggering 3,912%.

That’s enough to convert Rs 1 lakh into Rs 40 lakh

And M&M rallied even higher at 6,202%

Turning a tiny sum of Rs 1 lakh into almost Rs 63 lakhs.

So, we can see how an incredible amount of money was generated in the stocks profiting from India’s first two giant leaps.

And now India has started taking its third giant leap.

And I think we should make the most of this opportunity.

Entire world’s eyes are set on India.

Nomura is bullish on India.

It says India is the most attractive proposition and a long-term compelling growth story.

Swiss brokerage UBS Securities said global investors are bullish on Indian equities market in spite of the premium it commands over emerging market peers.

Billionaire bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach says India is my #1 choice right now.

Why is everyone so bullish on India?

Because they know that India’s is set to take a giant leap forward.

And if they stay out, then they could miss out on some of the biggest potential gains.

I will say, this is not the time to delay.

It’s time to ACT.

The train is leaving the station.

Either you catch this running train now or miss it forever.

TRUPTI:

Well said.

Thank you so much for giving us your valuable time… and sharing all this research with us.

It was very insightful.

RAHUL:

Thank you. It was my pleasure.

TRUPTI:

So, that’s it for now.

We hope you found what we shared today valuable.

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See you then.