Delta Corp: Mouth-Watering Bet for Value Investors? 

Hello everyone, Rahul Shah here, trying to make investing accessible and profitable for the average investor.

When it rains, it pours.

If you don't believe in this phrase, just ask the Delta Corp management. They will tell you from their first-hand experience that the phrase is pretty much valid and can make life very, very difficult.

Talking of a difficult life, the share price performance of Delta Corp Ltd has certainly made the life very difficult for its investors and management alike.

As I record this video, the share price is down a little over 40% from its 52-week highs, which is huge.

Especially at a time when the BSE Small Cap and mid cap indices are near their all-time highs and when other stocks have doubled in a few months.

In fact, the stock is down close to 60% if you consider the highs of April 2022. Losing 60% of your capital when most of the stocks around you are going up is not a very good sight. It is indeed difficult to digest.

But why has the stock lost so much wealth over the last 16-17 months and why is it giving its investors sleepless nights?

Well, as I said earlier, the bad news is not just raining for the stock but it is pouring. And it is pouring down hard.

The Goods and Services Tax Council or the GST council was the first major blow to the company when it imposed a GST of a whopping 28% on the full value of online gaming, horse racing and casinos.

The issue was pending for a couple of years and when the council finally took its decision, it dealt a huge blow to companies like Delta Corp by imposing a 28% tax. This news did not go down well with the investors and the stock price crashed around the day of the announcement.

Then came the news of the company putting its plans of IPO of its online gaming unit on hold because of the whole uncertainty around the GST issue and poor sentiments for such stocks. The IPO size was pegged at Rs 550-Rs 600 crores and would have led to a good amount of value unlocking for shareholders.

Within few days of this announcement, there came the news that the company's CFO i.e. its Chief Financial Officer has tendered his resignation. The CFO was a 15-year veteran of the company and therefore, his resignation was another blow.

And if this wasn't enough, there comes the latest news that the company has been slapped with a tax notice that amounts to a huge Rs 16,822 crores.

To put this figure into perspective, it is almost 4 times the company's current market cap and more than double the company's revenues for the last decade. Yes, that's right. This is a huge figure by any stretch of imagination and therefore, it comes as no surprise that the stock price has crashed after this announcement.

The stock currently trades a PE multiple of 14.3x, a discount of close to 50% from its 52-week high PE ratio of 26x.

From a long-term perspective also, the current PE ratio is almost half its long-term median of around 25x-30x.

You see, there are two kinds of investors that I have come across.

The first kind believe in buying the best quality merchandise or the best quality stock and don't want to come anywhere close to a controversial stock like Delta Corporation.

For them, they won't touch the stock even with a 10-foot pole no matter how bright its growth prospects or how attractive its valuations. They like buying companies which have strong competitive advantages, which are easy to understand, and which are run by top class management teams.

Therefore, for them, it does not matter whether a stock like Delta Corp is down almost 60% from its top.

It can be down 90% and they still won't consider it. If you belong to such a category, then Delta Corp is certainly not for you.

The second category of value investors are those that believe that most stocks are worth buying at a certain valuation and can be sold if the valuations become expensive or go beyond a certain threshold.

Although Delta Corp is going through troubled times right now, its historical track record has been quite decent. It has managed to nearly double its topline as well as bottomline over the last five years and has ambitious plans for the future as well.

More importantly, it is almost a zero-debt company for many years now and has also paid out a small percentage of profits as dividends on a consistent basis.

Therefore, the company does know how to make profits and how to grow its business.

Now, to the most important question? What is the price point or what is the valuation below which the risk-reward equation turns in favour of the investor and what is the valuation beyond which the risk-reward turns adverse or unfavorable?

Well, this is subjective to be honest but here's how I see the whole thing.

You see, I have a simple thumb rule. Do not pay anything more than 10x-12x PE multiple for a stock with fundamentals similar to Delta Corp

I think this PE multiple incorporates a decent margin of safety and leaves good room for any upside over the next 1-2 years.

Secondly, either consider the latest earnings as the earnings power of a company if it is a growing company or consider the average of the last 3-5 years as the earnings power.

Now, multiply this PE multiple of 12x with the earnings power of the company and voila, you have your maximum buy price, the upper limit. Beyond this limit, the risk-reward is no longer favorable.

Does this mean that you are guaranteed to make money on every stock you buy using this simple formula? Definitely not.

What it means is that if you buy a group of stocks using this formula then there's a strong chance you could potentially make money on this group over 1-2 years.

There will be a few individual stocks that will not perform as per expectations. However, as a group, you may still end up making good returns.

The beauty of this approach is you don't have to burn the midnight oil trying to figure out whether the tax penalty on Delta Corp will have an impact on the share price or how to account for such developments.

The margin of safety that we seek in valuations by insisting on a PE multiple of not more than 10x-12x and our group-based approach, takes care of all such uncertainties.

You see, 'margin of safety' is the most powerful concept in investing.

However, you have to use it correctly and on the right stock.

It should be applied to proven earnings power of the company. You can't just apply it to any stock and hope to compensate for the extra risk by demanding a higher margin of safety.

I believe that it can be applied to a stock like Delta Corp to a good degree of reliability.

This approach makes investing simple and this is how it should be.

Let me know what you think. Happy Investing.