Is it 'Morning in India' Yet?

Since its birth as a nation 75 years ago, India has seemed poised on the edge of two very different futures.

On one side lay greatness. On the other, collapse.

Through the ups and downs, India has always emerged stronger. It has become clear now that as a new world order emerges, the world is looking towards India with hope.

There is a thing about destiny. It may be delayed but it cannot be denied.

India has always been destined to be great, a leader, a super power.

And it's not something new. For almost 2,500 years until the beginning of British rule in the country, India was one of the largest economies in the world, producing over a quarter of the global GDP.

Source: Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP. 1-2008 AD. Angus Maddison; IMF

We were a cultural hub, a manufacturing superpower, an agriculture giant, and our trade routes stretched the globe.

But in 1947, when India achieved its independence, she had been reduced to one of the world's poorest countries, with just over 3% of global GDP.

For 200 years, the British plundered India. Some experts estimate they drained a staggering US$ 45 tn from the country during their rule.

What has India done since then?

We've picked up the pieces and rebuilt our country because that's what people of great nations do.

In just 75 years, the country has rebuilt itself to become the sixth largest economy and one of the most powerful countries in the world.

But this is only the beginning. India is on the cusp of a golden era and on course for its tryst with destiny.

For it has always been India's destiny to be a global leader, a super power.

And it isn't something happening far off in the future. It's happening right now.

India - The People

For many years, the Indian experiment with nationhood and democracy was written off by western observers.

It was believed our country was too diverse to be a single nation and too poor to be run on democratic lines.

But despite multiple challenges over the last seven and a half decades, India has not only survived but thrived and yes, even stayed democratic.

Over the years, scepticism over the fate of India has finally dissipated. The Republic of India is here to stay.

Today, the world talks about India's growing clout in the global economy. One of the reasons for this is the very people of our nation.

India's 1.4 bn people make it the second most populous country in the world. But with an average age of 30, it has one of the youngest populations too.

India has a unique opportunity to develop and grow richer before ageing sets in.

With this vast resource of young citizens entering the workforce, it could create a 'demographic dividend'.

A demographic dividend is defined by the United Nations Population Fund as economic growth resulting from a shift in a population's age structure. It's mainly when the working-age population is larger than the number of dependents.

Over the next decade, India is expected to become an economy led by the middle class. Nearly 80% of households are expected to be middle-income. This up from under 50% today. This will drive consumer spending in the coming years.

This shift would result in households spending 2-3x more on food, beverages, apparel, personal care, gadgets, transport, and housing, as well as 3-4x more on healthcare, education, and entertainment among others.

The literacy rate among India's youth has increased, with approximately 90% being able to read or write. Coupled with the prevalence of social media and internet penetration, this has created a digitally savvy population.

The internet has significantly bridged the information divide between consumers in urban and rural India.

the government focused on improving physical and digital connectivity. This along with the use of innovative distribution channels, is unlocking the true consumption potential of rural India.

India is the only nation to have a demographic advantage right up to 2050 as over 60% of the country's working age population is aged between 15 and 60 years.

Investors consider India as an investment hub. Several global brands have set up operations in the country seeing the advantages of both a labour pool and a key markets.

Government initiatives such as Start-up India and the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY) have enabled entrepreneurship and increased employment opportunities.

Within a span of six years, India has become home to the world's third largest start-up ecosystem with over 75,000 start-ups out of which 10,000 were founded in 2022 alone.

Over 700,000 jobs have been created by these start-ups which is only set to grow.

The US became a global superpower because of its emphasis on investing in research & development. It is home to many entrepreneurs who have become industry leaders today.

Companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Amazon were once start-ups.

Indian start-ups could be the next world leaders and give our country it's place as a global superpower.

And it's not just start-ups. There is a rising spirit of self-confidence in India, never seen before.

It reflects in everything we do. Just look around you...

New India's youth is excelling in every sport and making records. The 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and the recently concluded common wealth games saw India's best medal haul ever.

Then there is the Miss Universe crown that India brought home in 2021, three nominations at the International Emmy Awards, or a teen chess prodigy becoming the youngest person to beat the world's no. 1 chess player.

Or perhaps even Kamala Harris, an Indian-American woman holding the seat of presidential power in the United States briefly when president Joe Biden transferred power before heading for a medical check-up.

Indians are in the front and centre of everything and everywhere.

India - The New Factory of the World

Manufacturing still matters a great deal for the economic prosperity of 20th century powerhouses.

China is proof of that.

Since opening up its economy, China went through a remarkable rebirth that left most economists dumbstruck.

Between 1979 and 2018, GDP growth averaged 9.5% per year. China became the manufacturing hub of the world. It made itself essential to western super powers.

China accounts for approximately 28% of the world's manufacturing output which generates around US$ 4 tn per year for their economy.

The title of China as the world's factory was always believed to be unassailable as big corporations had no reason to change.

For years the Indian, Vietnamese, Mexican, and South Korean governments tried to coax companies away from China but tasted little success.

But all of this changed in 2020 as Coronavirus was unleashed on the world.

When the virus was first discovered, actions of the Chinese government highlighted the dangers of over-reliance on one country. It forced many nations to re-think trade ties with China.

No longer are companies exclusively using China. Instead they are diversifying to a number of countries for new manufacturing units and supply chains.

And India is one of them.

Prime Minister Modi has grabbed the opportunity by the horns. The Indian government has been offering incentives to firms that start manufacturing their products in India.

And it's working...

Some of the biggest companies in the world such as Apple, Samsung, and Amazon have begun manufacturing in India. This is a move that catalyses the government's Make in India initiative.

After the pandemic, the export of merchandise goods to EU countries reached its highest ever turnover of more than Rs 6.40 lakh crore. This indicates that European countries now consider India as a trusted partner.

Critics often argue that the Make in India campaign has not lived up to its hype but data speaks louder than arguments.

The export of merchandise products and FDI in the manufacturing sector is the best parameter to judge the success or failure of the scheme.

In FY14-15, the export of manufactured goods was around Rs 17-19 lakh crore. In FY21-22 it increased to Rs 31.46 lakh crore, the highest in terms of value.

FDI inflows which were at US$ 16 bn in 2011 have zoomed to US$ 67.5 bn in 2021.

New investment and ordering activity have seen a sharp pick-up in the financial year 2021-22. The manufacturing sector witnessed a 460% jump in 2021-22 as against 2019-20.

Manufacturing GDP which is around 16-17% presently. It is expected to increase to 22%-24% over the next five years.

As this growth happens, there will be massive opportunities in exports as well as in import substitution. Global growth is not a much of a worry because India is gaining market share.

The government is expected to continue providing a safety net - both tariff and non-tariff - to make sure that domestic industry flourishes and does not fear any unfair competition.

And there has been another significant change. India's cost competitiveness vis-a-vis China has improved significantly.

India's labour cost is US$ 200. China's labour cost is US$ 800. Power costs have come down and are more or less at par with China. Logistics costs are also improving.

In a way, this could be akin to the time right before the Indian IT sector took off. In the contemporary world economy, India is the largest exporter of IT.

This seems like a structural change and the making of a long-term trend which could last for the next few decades.

It's why Arvind Panagariya - the famous economist at Columbia University says:

"The last two decades were China's, the next two should be India's."

It seems Prime Minister Narendra Modi's gambit to spur manufacturing is finally taking off. After years of false starts India is finding space on the world's factory floor.

With its manufacturing prowess, China became the second largest economy in the world, doubling its GDP every eight years and raised an estimated 800 m people out of poverty.

Imagine the potential for India as it becomes the next manufacturing powerhouse of the world.

India - The Influencer

A superpower is a state with a dominant position characterised by its extensive ability to exert influence on a global scale.

This is done through the combined means of economic, military, technological, political, and cultural strength as well as diplomacy and soft power.

The first, and most immediately identifiable form of power is a nation's military strength.

With a strength of 1.4 m active military manpower, India is ranked as the fourth most powerful military in the world.

Further with a defence budget of US$ 76 bn, India military spending is third highest in the world.

The numbers provide clear, straightforward, and easily quantifiable indicators of India's growing military clout.

Looking at the economy, India has been among the leading economies of the world over the last decade. It's likely to become the fastest growing economy in FY23.

It is widely expected that India will become the 3rd largest economy by 2030 on the back of reforms by the government.

This year, India displayed strong diplomatic character by choosing not to take sides in the Ukraine conflict.

India was under tremendous pressure to pick a side but chose to maintain a fine balance.

Leaders from the US, UK, Russia, and China flew to New Delhi, signifying India's increasing clout.

There is a difference between India's non-alignment during the cold war and now. Earlier, India was weak on the global stage but the India of today is strong.

Modi's vision envisages India becoming a great leading power and not a balancing power which it has been ever since independence.

As a powerful country, India has the potential to play a positive role to broker peace in the world. Countries look toward India to help bring conflicting parties to the negotiating table.

Another factor that works in India's favour is its location. Amid the evolving Asian balance of power, India's strength lies in its strategic location.As a result, countries such as the US, Japan, and Australia are working closely with India to combat China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Finally, ever since the Modi led government came into power it has increasingly focused on developing its 'soft power' credentials by using the attractiveness of Indian culture and values.

Modi realised early on that India could not compete with the strength of its army or economy when compared with China or the US. But it could instead be the country that told the 'better story'. This would qualify it to be a global player.

India is now perceived as a superpower also through its ability to share its culture with the world through food, yoga, ayurveda, music, technology and Bollywood.

Being the world's largest democracy, India has important soft power advantages over China. Its rise, unlike China's is perceived as complementing rather than challenging its neighbours because of India's democratic experience.

India - 'Modi-fied'

A guide is someone who takes you where you want to be in life but a leader is someone who takes you where you ought to be in life.

India was always destined to be great. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi the nation is on course to fulfil its destiny. He is perhaps one of the few leaders in whom the entire country has faith in and expectations from.

Hence, it is not surprising that in 2022, for the third year in a row, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi topped the 'Global Leader Approval' with 72% rating.

He left behind global leaders including US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and French President Emmanuel Macron.

It is only since Modi took over leadership of the country that India and Indians have "stepped out" and truly come of age.

Narendra Modi is a leader unlike any other as he is not bound by unnecessary traditional protocol.

Through his mantra of service, good governance and uplifting the most marginalised, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has truly brought India to the 21st century.

Popular schemes like the Swachh Bharat Mission, Jan Dhan Yojana, PM Awas Yojana, amongst several others have transformed the lives of the poor and have helped raise their standard of living.

PM Modi's vision of Jan Dhan Yojana and demonetisation have been often criticized but it resulted in millions of citizens opening bank accounts.

This contributed immensely towards the financial inclusion of those sections who had otherwise been left out of the system.

Today, there are no middlemen involved in the implementation of welfare measures. From scholarships, payments to farmers, government assistance, everything is transferred directly to the account of citizens.

Initiatives like Make in India, Digital India, Start-up India have proved to be milestones in building a New India while steps like GST have proved to be historic steps for economic reforms.

The last few years have been tough for the world with the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Leadership around the world has been challenged and weakened.

Amid all this, India has emerged as the only bright spark and a ray of hope because of its strong leadership.

India - Truly Shining

India Shining was a marketing slogan referring to the overall feeling of economic optimism in India. It was popularised by the then-ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the 2004 Indian general elections.

However, it was often criticised as it didn't reflect reality of its times.

But this time around things are different. India is truly shining and the world acknowledges it.

Indians are more optimistic than ever before about their future with many believing this is the best time to be in India.

And it's not just citizens who feel this way. Former British High Commissioner James Bevan once said, "Being born in India in the 21st century is like winning a lottery of history."

Our cities and towns are being transformed, the country is being modernised with new railways, bridges, inland waterways, gas pipelines, schools. The list goes on and on.

And it impacts every Indian from all walks of life.

In short, we're going to be catapulted into the 21st century as the next superpower.

So is it "Morning in India" yet?

I believe it is.

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